La Argentina ya entró de lleno en el calendario electoral 2025, y las primeras elecciones provinciales comienzan a ofrecer indicios de cómo se mueven las piezas en el tablero político. Repasamos los resultados de los primeros comicios y lo que nos deja la reciente jornada electoral en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires.
El primer capítulo del año se abrió en Santa Fe, con una elección histórica: la elección de convencionales constituyentes tras más de seis décadas sin reforma de su Constitución. Allí, el oficialismo que lidera el gobernador Maximiliano Pullaro se impuso con el 35%, seguido por el peronismo representado por Juan Monteverde con un 15% y Nicolás Mayor de La Libertad Avanza con un 14%. Pero el dato interesante fue Rosario, donde Monteverde logró dar vuelta el resultado y posicionar al peronismo como fuerza ganadora. Un contraste que deja ver un mapa electoral con claros matices.
Luego vino una jornada cargada, el pasado 11 de mayo, cuando votaron Jujuy, Salta, Chaco y San Luis. En Jujuy, el oficialismo radical volvió a imponerse con fuerza, pero lo que llamó la atención fue el segundo lugar de La Libertad Avanza, superando al peronismo que cayó a un discreto 10%. Incluso la izquierda logró un inusual 8,5%, algo a tener en cuenta en el norte argentino.
En Salta, el gobernador Gustavo Sáenz mantuvo el control provincial, aunque en la capital salteña, La Libertad Avanza se quedó con el primer lugar. Un reflejo del fenómeno nacional que, de a poco, empieza a penetrar en los centros urbanos. En Chaco, la alianza entre radicales y libertarios logró un 45% de los votos, dejando atrás al histórico peronismo de Jorge Capitanich. Y en San Luis, Claudio Poggi volvió a ganar, relegando al veterano Alberto Rodríguez Saá al segundo puesto con el 30%.
Finalmente, todos los ojos se posaron en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, epicentro mediático y político del país. Allí, el vocero presidencial Manuel Adorni, como candidato de La Libertad Avanza, logró un 30% y se quedó con el primer lugar. En segundo lugar, Leandro Santoro, con un 27%, hizo una elección digna que achica distancias. La sorpresa fue la caída de Graciela Lopenato, del PRO, que apenas alcanzó un 15%, en una ciudad donde ese espacio lleva más de 20 años de hegemonía.
En resumen, las primeras elecciones del año dejan en evidencia nuevas configuraciones, territorios en disputa y espacios que buscan reubicarse. La Libertad Avanza muestra capacidad de penetración más allá del AMBA. El peronismo alterna resultados dispares, mientras que el PRO enfrenta señales de desgaste en sus bastiones históricos.
Todavía falta mucho para octubre, pero la tendencia ya está en marcha. Y el 2025 promete ser un año de cambios profundos en el mapa político nacional.
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