La actividad industrial en Argentina experimentó una leve mejora en mayo, según el último informe de la Fundación FIEL. Si bien el sector mostró una recuperación desestacionalizada respecto a abril, con un crecimiento interanual del 3%, los analistas alertan sobre la posibilidad de un estancamiento en los próximos meses, a medida que el efecto de la base de comparación con 2024 comienza a diluirse.
De acuerdo con el Índice de Producción Industrial (IPI) de FIEL, la actividad industrial se expandió un 0.2% en mayo en términos desestacionalizados frente a abril. La variación bruta en el mes fue del 2.4%. En la comparación interanual, mayo marcó un crecimiento del 3% frente al mismo mes del año pasado. Con este resultado, el acumulado de los primeros cinco meses de 2025 se ubicó 2.7% por encima del nivel alcanzado en igual período de 2024.
FIEL destacó que la producción industrial de mayo volvió a registrar crecimiento tras dos meses de retrocesos mensuales (marzo y abril). Asimismo, la comparación interanual contra abril de 2024 arrojó una mejora del 5.5%. No obstante, la producción aún se encuentra 1.6% por debajo del nivel de febrero de este año.
El informe advierte que, si bien se observó un incremento en el índice de difusión por el aporte de actividades puntuales, los indicadores que monitorean la sostenibilidad de la fase de recuperación industrial señalan una nueva merma en su dinámica. La fase actual, que lleva trece meses, continúa mostrando un ritmo bajo en relación con otras fases de recuperación industrial desde 1980. FIEL concluye que, aunque la industria encadenó un semestre de recuperación, la actividad no transitará necesariamente una mejora más difundida y dinámica, sino un sendero de modesto avance con desempeños sectoriales heterogéneos.
Desempeño por Sectores:
La industria automotriz encabezó el repunte mensual, con una suba significativa atribuida al incremento en la producción de automóviles y utilitarios. FIEL explicó que «las ventas de vehículos al mercado interno sostuvieron un fuerte dinamismo, mientras que las exportaciones anotaron un trimestre en crecimiento a partir de la tracción de ventas a Brasil».
En segundo lugar se posicionó el sector de minerales no metálicos, con una mejora mensual relevante, aunque inferior a la observada en el primer trimestre. Las ventas de insumos para la construcción mostraron cierta moderación, y el mayor freno en los despachos de cemento se observó en las ventas en bolsa.
Los alimentos y bebidas también registraron un crecimiento superior al promedio. En este rubro, el informe destacó «el avance de la lechería, el retroceso de la faena vacuna y el avance de la producción de gaseosas, aguas, jugos y licores».
Por el contrario, la mayor contracción mensual la sufrió el sector de químicos y plásticos, con caídas pronunciadas en agroquímicos y neumáticos.
Resultados Acumulados y Perspectivas:
En términos acumulados (enero-mayo), la producción de minerales no metálicos lideró el crecimiento sectorial con un aumento del 15.5%. Le siguieron la industria automotriz (12.4%) y el sector de alimentos y bebidas (4.3%).
Con desempeños por debajo del promedio, la producción de industrias metálicas básicas subió 0.8% y la de insumos textiles avanzó 0.4%. La refinación de petróleo permaneció estable, mientras que la producción de químicos y plásticos cayó 0.4%. Las mayores caídas acumuladas correspondieron a la metalmecánica (-3.7%), cigarrillos (-4.0%) y papel y celulosa (-6.1%).
Según el tipo de bien producido, los bienes de capital encabezaron la recuperación acumulada entre enero y mayo, con un crecimiento del 6%, explicado por la mejora en la producción de maquinaria agrícola, vehículos utilitarios y transporte pesado. Les siguieron los bienes de consumo no durable con una suba del 3.2%, y los bienes de uso intermedio, que igualaron el promedio industrial (2.7%). En tanto, los bienes de consumo durable permanecieron sin cambios respecto al año anterior.
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